Description: Politics, Prediction Markets, and Punditry
We are now officially in the political betting off-season! I think I predicted this is about when it would feel like PredictIt was entering the doldrums, and also I think I promised to do some more data-focused blog posts when this time rolled around. This is sort of going to be one of these, but only sort of. This will be a general betting strategy blog, wherein I gently pick on the famous Kelly criterion . Here’s what I’ll say:
What is Kelly?
Kelly is a way of managing your bet sizing invented by (get this) a guy who’s last name was Kelly. He was a pretty smart fellow, I gather, who did some proper math and wrote a function that will calculate for you the optimal amount of your bankroll to bet on any given proposition in order to maximize your wealth in the magical “long run”. In betting, sizing is a rather critical part of the game! If it makes sense to you that you should bet more when your edge is huge and less when it’s small, congrats, you’