Description: Dispute Outcome Expectations: a measure of likely outcomes in international disputes.
Dispute Outcome Expectations: measuring how raw capabilities shape military power.
The Dispute Outcome Expectations score is a probabilistic measure of how a hypothetical militarized dispute between two states would end, taking into account each side's raw military capabilities .
The DOE scores are the output of an ensemble of machine learning models. We fit the models on the Militarized Interstate Disputes data and then use them to calculate predicted probabilities for every dyad–year from 1816 to 2012.