Warwick Econometrics – Turning data into insights
Since the Brexit-vote on 23. June 2016, the overall UK economy has grown at a noticeably lower rate compared to before the EU referendum. There are several methods used to estimate the counterfactual capturing how the UK economy would have grown, had it not been for the UK’s vote to Leave the EU. Descriptive analysis suggests that since the EU referendum, Britain has fallen from the top to the bottom of the league of G7 leading economies in the year since the Brexit vote, highlighting significantly slower g
The visualizations presented below are based on the research paper of Fetzer and Wang (2020) , Measuring the Regional Economic Costs of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019. This working paper describes in detail the synthetic control method as an econometric tool is applied to subnational economic activity data from the UK and other countries to both, estimate the overall economic impact of the Brexit-vote to date and to study how this cost is distributed across regions- and districts in the UK.
Scotland Synthetic control estimate The gross-value added (GDP) in Scotland appears to be 2.82 percentage points lower relative to a statistically constructed synthetic control that best captures how GDP would have evolved had it not for the UK's vote to Leave the European Union. The estimate suggests that the Brexit-vote has cost Scotland 's economy 3954.89 million pounds in 2019. This amounts to a loss of economic activity of about -736.07 pounds per resident in 2019.
Warwick Econometrics – Turning data into insights