Ben Bailey
The upcoming trade deadline has me thinking about the Cubs’ two most prominent potential trade pieces, Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman.
With the Cubs struggling, I’ve thought a lot about which moves they missed and didn’t miss over the offseason. Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Edwin Rios, Brad Boxberger, and Jameson Taillon have been bad, but Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Mike Tauchman have been good. In many cases, the alternatives haven’t been much better (see José Abreu, Christian Vázquez, Jacob deGrom). One choice I had forgotten about, however, was that between Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier. 1
Kiermaier has been healthier than Bellinger this year, which is unusual; Bellinger has played in 38 more games over the last three years. Both are good defensive center fielders, though Kiermaier is a generational talent there. The number that stands out to me, though, is their xWOBAs. The way Kiermaier has hit thus far would typically result in better outcomes than those Bellinger has gotten. Bellinger’s expected production has matched Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchmann, and Nico Hoerner’s actual production. Th
Ben Bailey