Description: Opinions, Observations, and Non-Journalistic Ramblings
It’s uncomfortable to watch the news as talking heads describe the approach of war. They’re breathless, almost giddy as Russia gets ready to move into Ukraine. They love watching diplomacy go off the rails. It’s a great story, after all. When China starts talking about “limitless” cooperation with Russia, the headlines write themselves. But the prospect of a neo-Cold War against a Russia-China axis is not something to get excited about.
Jake Sullivan made the argument today that the West would be fine in such a scenario, as, after all, we make up 50% of the world’s GDP, to China and Russia’s 20%. Never mind how much the western world’s own productivity is built right on top of those 20%. We watched how a simple chip shortage impacted the entire global auto-industry since 2020, but somehow we’re not worried about the (many) other lynchpin products that we rely on to keep our own industries running?
Russia launching an open war against Ukraine is, on its own, a regional disaster. China aligning itself with Russia gives it the potential to become a global one. Russia and China could even work together with Iran to break the US’ global grip on power, all without ever actually attacking the US or “the West” directly.