Hal on Policy | I know nothing
Description: I know nothing
With the news that the U.S. will now send a small number of ATACMS to Ukraine, and of course over a year of asking why we haven’t sent them, I thought I’d do a little analysis of the numbers we could send.
Overall, it looks like the U.S. bought just under 3000 ATACMS over the years. The ATACMS actually went out of production years ago, then production re-started to meet Foreign Military Sales. But the U.S hasn’t bought new ones in a very long time and has no plans to do so. Instead, a new missile, the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) will be available (“Early Operational Capability”) shortly (FY24). It won’t reach Initial Operational Capability and enter full production until FY25 or reach Full Operational Cap
That the U.S. purchased 3000 ATACMS doesn’t mean that is what the U.S. current has in inventory. Looking at various sources that show wartime usage, but having to guess at training and testing use, there are about 2300 ATACMS left in U.S. inventory. That could sound like a lot or a little to you, in reality it is a pretty small number. We have some data points that can show that. For example, the U.S. Air Force thinks in terms of there being 100,000 aim points (aka discrete targets) in a major regional war.
Hal on Policy | I know nothing