andrewgelman.com - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Matthew Stephenson sends along this paper on the reliability of quantitative estimates of the magnitude and impact of global corruption and writes:
There’s no fancy statistical work here, and nothing about causal inference – my coauthor Cecilie Wathne and I were just trying to figure out where some of these oft-cited numbers come from… and we found that they’re often either completely made up, or based on what can be most generous described as gut feelings expressed in quantitative form.
From the paper:
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